Publications

BACKGROUND

Fibrosis stages from liver biopsies reflect liver damage from hepatitis C infection, but analysis is challenging due to their ordered but non-numeric nature, infrequent measurement, misclassification, and unknown infection times.

METHODS

We used a non-Markov multistate model, accounting for misclassification, with multiple imputation of unknown infection times, applied to 1062 participants of whom 159 had multiple biopsies. Odds ratios (OR) quantified the estimated effects of covariates on progression risk at any given time.

RESULTS

Models estimated that progression risk decreased the more time participants had already spent in the current stage, African American race was protective (OR 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.60 to 0.95, p = 0.018), and older current age increased risk (OR 1.33 per decade, 95% confidence interval 1.15 to 1.54, p = 0.0002). When controlled for current age, older age at infection did not appear to increase risk (OR 0.92 per decade, 95% confidence interval 0.47 to 1.79, p = 0.80). There was a suggestion that co-infection with human immunodeficiency virus increased risk of progression in the era of highly active antiretroviral treatment beginning in 1996 (OR 2.1, 95% confidence interval 0.97 to 4.4, p = 0.059). Other examined risk factors may influence progression risk, but evidence for or against this was weak due to wide confidence intervals. The main results were essentially unchanged using different assumed misclassification rates or imputation of age of infection.

DISCUSSION

The analysis avoided problems inherent in simpler methods, supported the previously suspected protective effect of African American race, and suggested that current age rather than age of infection increases risk. Decreasing risk of progression with longer time already spent in a stage was also previously found for post-transplant progression. This could reflect varying disease activity, with recent progression indicating active disease and high risk, while longer time already spent in a stage indicates quiescent disease and low risk.

BACKGROUND

Factors other than acid may play a role in gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and its complications.

AIM

To assessed the role of bile acids in the pathogenesis of GERD, Barrett's oesophagus and Barrett's-related neoplasia.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of computerised bibliographic databases for original articles involving humans or human oesophageal tissue or cells that assessed exposure to or manipulation of bile acids. Outcomes assessed included GERD symptoms; gross oesophageal injury; Barrett's oesophagus and related neoplasia; and intermediate markers of inflammation, proliferation or neoplasia.

RESULTS

Eighty-three original articles were included. In in vivo studies, bile acids concentrations were higher in the oesophageal aspirates of patients with GERD than controls, and bile acids infusions triggered GERD symptoms, especially in high concentrations or in combination with acid. In ex vivo/in vitro studies, bile acids stimulated squamous oesophageal cells and Barrett's epithelial cells to produce inflammatory mediators (e.g., IL-8 and COX-2) and caused oxidative stress, DNA damage and apoptosis. They also induced squamous cells to change their gene expression pattern to resemble intestinal-type cells and caused Barrett's cells to increase expression of intestinal-type genes.

CONCLUSIONS

In aggregate, these studies suggest that bile acids may contribute to the pathogenesis of symptoms, oesophagitis and Barrett's metaplasia with related carcinogenesis in patients with GERD. However, all study results are not uniform and substantial differences in study parameters may explain at least some of this variation.